Carlos César Chávez Padilla
Development Economist · University of Chicago
Featured Research
Automation Is Not a Sufficient Statistic: A Two-Frontier Task Model of Robots, AI, and Inequality
A two-frontier task model showing why aggregate automation hides opposite skill-premium effects of robots and AI. Includes a live simulation of the two-frontier identity.
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Recent Publications
Trade liberalization significantly increases innovation outcomes in developing countries, with effects persisting for up to 30 years.
Published in AI and Ethics - examines the relationship between technological progress and genuine civilizational advancement.
304 views, 46 downloads. Examines how financial liberalization affects political and social stability.
Under Review
Analyzes geographic concentration, methodological trends, and citation patterns in Nobel Prize awards.
Import liberalization has larger poverty-reducing effects than export expansion through lower consumer prices.
Opportunity costs reduce state-based conflict while rapacity increases non-state conflict. Boom-period growth reduced insurgencies by 2.65pp but intensified territorial competition by 0.49pp.
Latest Working Papers
Develops a novel task-based framework showing why aggregate automation hides opposite skill-premium effects of robots and AI.
42 views, 16 downloads. Examines conditions under which tariff threats effectively coerce policy changes in target countries.
Develops a macroeconomic framework for asymmetric automation across tasks, robots, and AI, and traces the aggregate implications for labor markets and growth.