[{"content":" Download Dataset (ZIP, ~1.7 MB) — 20 CSVs, README, data dictionary, and license. What this is The district-level electoral panel behind the paper Do Voters Punish Political Instability?. The design compares Peruvian districts targeted by Fuerza Popular\u0026rsquo;s 2021 vote-annulment offensive with profile-matched controls, and districts crossed by the paralyzed Lava Jato road corridors, across the 2006–2026 elections.\nThe package contains the estimation universe and propensity groups, the primary two-way runoff outcome and the first-round outcome, the 36-specification robustness curve, the first-round block decomposition and the offensive-intensity (threatened-vote) panel, the two mechanism tests (intensity and runoff absorption), the Lava Jato corridor exposure with 2016 construction status, and the Conley spatial-HAC inference table. A README.md and DATA_DICTIONARY.md document every file and column.\nSources and privacy Built entirely from public sources: ONPE electoral results (2006–2026), JNE and INFOgob annulment-petition records and the 2021 presidential baseline, and the INEI 2017 census. Every table is a geographic aggregate keyed on the ONPE district code (UBIGEO). No personal data is included — no names, identifiers, or individual-level records. INEI and ONPE use different district codings; the electoral key is the ONPE UBIGEO throughout.\nLicense Released under CC BY 4.0.\nCitation Chávez Padilla, Carlos César. 2026. Replication data for \u0026ldquo;Do Voters Punish Political Instability? Attribution, Electoral Subversion, and Material Disruption in Peru.\u0026rdquo; Derived from public ONPE, JNE/INFOgob, and INEI sources.\n","permalink":"https://cesarchavezp29.github.io/data/voters-punish-instability/","summary":"Estimation universe, primary and first-round outcomes, the 36-specification robustness curve, the first-round block decomposition and offensive-intensity panel, the two mechanism tests, the Lava Jato corridor exposure, and the spatial-HAC inference table — all district-level and built from public sources.","title":"Do Voters Punish Political Instability? — Replication Data"},{"content":" Download Paper (PDF) Replication data Abstract Do voters punish political instability at the ballot box? We assemble a district-level electoral panel for Peru (2006–2026) spanning two episodes at attribution\u0026rsquo;s poles: Fuerza Popular\u0026rsquo;s 2021 offensive of over a thousand petitions to annul tallies after Keiko Fujimori narrowly lost the runoff to Pedro Castillo and ran again in 2026, and the paralysis of Lava Jato megaprojects, a shock with no local culprit. Comparing targeted with profile-matched control districts, clustered by province, we find no differential runoff penalty (seven hundredths of a point, robust across thirty-six specifications). We rule out a penalty above five points under conservative trends but not smaller ones. A first-round withdrawal is inseparable from the left\u0026rsquo;s collapse, and the material shock moves nothing. The runoff coordinates voters against the left, so the offensive costs its author little, which helps explain why subversion can pay. Deterrence then falls to courts more than the electorate.\nKeywords Electoral accountability, Political instability, Electoral subversion, Democratic backsliding, Two-round elections, Difference-in-differences, Peru, Lava Jato\nData The district-level replication data are available on the Data page. All tables are geographic aggregates built from public ONPE, JNE/INFOgob, and INEI sources, with no personal data.\nCitation Chávez Padilla, Carlos César. 2026. \u0026ldquo;Do Voters Punish Political Instability? Attribution, Electoral Subversion, and Material Disruption in Peru.\u0026rdquo; Working paper.\n","permalink":"https://cesarchavezp29.github.io/papers/voters-punish-instability/","summary":"A district-level electoral panel for Peru tests whether voters punish an attributable electoral-subversion offensive and an authorless material shock. Both yield no differential punishment, and two-round coordination helps explain why subversion can go locally unpunished.","title":"Do Voters Punish Political Instability? Attribution, Electoral Subversion, and Material Disruption in Peru"},{"content":" Status Under review, Journal of Economic Methodology.\nDownload Paper (SSRN) Abstract This paper studies how new methods spread through the economics profession and why some become mainstream while others stay niche. Adoption is shaped by the entry barriers a researcher faces in learning a technique, the returns to specializing in it, and the sorting of researchers into method-based communities. The framework is brought to evidence on the diffusion of econometric techniques through citation and authorship networks. It consolidates and supersedes the earlier working papers \u0026ldquo;Diffusion of Ideas\u0026rdquo; and \u0026ldquo;When Ideas Become Mainstream?\u0026rdquo;\nKeywords Economics Profession, Econometrics, Methodology, Diffusion of Ideas, Specialization, Community Sorting, Scientometrics\nCitation Chávez Padilla, Carlos César. 2026. \u0026ldquo;How Economists Adopt Methods: Entry Barriers, Specialization, and Community Sorting.\u0026rdquo; Under review, Journal of Economic Methodology.\n","permalink":"https://cesarchavezp29.github.io/papers/how-economists-adopt-methods/","summary":"A framework for how economists adopt new methods, where the cost of learning a technique, the returns to specialization, and the sorting of researchers into method-based communities shape which methods become mainstream. Under review at the Journal of Economic Methodology.","title":"How Economists Adopt Methods: Entry Barriers, Specialization, and Community Sorting"},{"content":" Download Dataset (ZIP, ~180 KB) — CSVs, the QA\u0026rsquo;d Excel transcription, README, data dictionary, and license. What this is The realized assignment of a procurement cartel, reconstructed from a public antitrust ruling. Indecopi\u0026rsquo;s Resolución 080-2021/CLC (15 November 2021) sanctioned thirty-two construction groups for rigging Ministry of Transport road tenders between November 2002 and December 2016. This dataset is the tender-and-firm universe behind the paper The Price of Corruption.\nMost of the collusion-detection literature has to infer which tenders were rigged from bid distributions. Here the competition authority adjudicated each tender, so the colluded/competitive label is observed, which makes the data useful for validating screens, studying cartel governance, and measuring overcharge.\nAll tables are firm-level and built entirely from the public resolution. No personal data is included.\nContents 78 reconstructed road tenders with project, year, winning consortium and members, reference and offered values. Firm × process roles (winning member, cover bidder, uncertain-target cover, participant without support). 32 sanctioned economic groups with RUC, conduct dates, fines (UIT), and remedies. Offer-level bids (Anexo 2) with the colluded/competitive classification. Illicit benefit and reference values (Anexo 3) in the QA\u0026rsquo;d Excel transcription. Exposure measures (firm- and process-level) and a SEACE/OCDS validation crosswalk. A README.md and DATA_DICTIONARY.md. Source and license Derived from Indecopi Resolución 080-2021/CLC-INDECOPI (Expediente 001-2020/CLC), which is public. Released under CC BY 4.0.\nCitation Chávez Padilla, Carlos César. 2026. \u0026ldquo;The Construction Club Cartel — Reconstructed Dataset.\u0026rdquo; Derived from Indecopi Resolución 080-2021/CLC.\n","permalink":"https://cesarchavezp29.github.io/data/construction-club-cartel/","summary":"78 cartelized road tenders, 32 sanctioned firms, firm roles, winners, offer-level bids with the adjudicated colluded/competitive label, fines and illicit benefit, and exposure measures.","title":"The Construction Club Cartel — Reconstructed Dataset"},{"content":" Download Paper (PDF) Abstract How much does corruption cost in public infrastructure, and who bears it? We study two judicial records of Peruvian road corruption, Odebrecht bribery in road concessions and a sanctioned cartel that rigged national road tenders between 2002 and 2016, and reconstruct from them the universe of tenders and firm roles. Because the competition authority adjudicated each tender, we validate collusion-detection screens against ground truth, and a level screen on the winning bid recovers the verdict where the dispersion screen the literature relies on does not, with areas under the curve of 0.87 against 0.50. Bribed concession projects overran initial budgets by more than half against under a fifth for the rest, and colluded winners bid near the reference-value ceiling while competitive winners gave the State a ten-percent discount. We find no measurable local welfare dividend and no crowd-out of other public investment. The price is a national-budget cost, and level-based screens sharpen its detection.\nKeywords Corruption, Procurement, Collusion, Bid-Rigging, Cost Overruns, Collusion-Detection Screens, Peru, Infrastructure\nCitation Chávez Padilla, Carlos César. 2026. \u0026ldquo;The Price of Corruption: Evidence from Lava Jato and the Construction Club in Peru.\u0026rdquo; Working paper.\n","permalink":"https://cesarchavezp29.github.io/papers/price-of-corruption/","summary":"Reconstructs the universe of cartelized road tenders from an antitrust resolution, validates collusion-detection screens against the adjudicated label, and measures the procurement-side price of corruption and its incidence.","title":"The Price of Corruption: Evidence from Lava Jato and the Construction Club in Peru"},{"content":"Download: Academic CV · Resume (1-page) · Resume — policy (1-page). LaTeX sources maintained on Overleaf.\nDevelopment economist working on human capital and political economy, combining structural estimation with high-frequency data. Research Professional with James J. Heckman at the University of Chicago, and builder of Qhawarina, a real-time open-data platform for Peru.\nEducation 2024–2025University of Chicago, Harris School of Public Policy — Master of Arts in Public Policy. Merit Scholarship. 2013–2017Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos (UNMSM) — B.A. in Economics, graduated with honors (GPA 3.9/4.0). Best Undergraduate Thesis. 2018Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería — Diplomas in Applied Econometrics and Finance. Research Interests Primary: Development Economics · Early Childhood Development\nSecondary: Political Economy · Labor Economics\nResearch Experience Research Professional, Center for the Economics of Human Development · 2024–present\nUniversity of Chicago, Chicago, IL\nWork with Prof. James J. Heckman on early childhood skill formation and economic preferences. Research examining how cognitive skills and personality traits relate to economic preferences in Chinese children, using structural modeling with CRRA and Expo-Power utility specifications. Paper under review at Journal of Labor Economics. Research Assistant, Harris School of Public Policy · 2024–present\nUniversity of Chicago, Chicago, IL\nWork with Prof. Christopher Blattman on gang recruitment vulnerability in Colombia. Work with Prof. Martin Castillo-Quintana on game-theoretic models of extortion. Research Professional (Pre-Doctoral Fellow) · 2023–2024\nGeorgetown University, McDonough School of Business, Washington, DC\nWorked with Prof. Amory Gethin on the political economy of social movements. Developed a machine-learning classification system using DeBERTa transformers to analyze congressional bill responses to the George Floyd protests and the Women\u0026rsquo;s March. Research Analyst, Monetary and Capital Markets Department · 2021–2023\nInternational Monetary Fund, Washington, DC\nCo-authored IMF Working Paper on ethnic gaps and economic growth in Peru (with G. Salinas and Z. Yuri). Research on political instability and macroeconomic outcomes across 180+ countries. Supported country missions to Sweden, South Africa, and Caribbean nations. Research Assistant, Monetary and Capital Markets Department · 2020–2021\nInternational Monetary Fund, Washington, DC\nResearch Consultant, Pension Fund Department · 2019–2020\nInter-American Development Bank, Lima, Peru\nResearch Assistant, Centro de Investigación · 2018–2019\nUniversidad del Pacífico, Lima, Peru\nSelected Research Relating Cognitive Skills and Personality Traits to Economic Preferences: A Study of Chinese Children (with S. Feng, J.J. Heckman, Z. Yang) — R\u0026amp;R, Journal of Labor Economics. A structural model with sophisticated error structures separates preferences from deliberation quality; cognitive ability affects decision precision more than underlying risk preferences. Innovation, Liberalization, and Competition — forthcoming, Journal of Business. Commodity Booms and Violent Conflict — under review, American Journal of Political Science. Electoral Pressure and Political Lying — under review, World Politics. A dynamic game of credibility against electoral pressure; on PolitiFact data (U.S. House, 2007–2025) final-term members lie 5.6–8.0 pp more than early-term members. Import Liberalization, Not Export Expansion — under review, Journal of International Economics. Fraud Allegations as Identification: A Within-Election Forensic Test — under review, Political Analysis. Turns a losing candidate\u0026rsquo;s own nullification challenges into the counterfactual; applied to Peru\u0026rsquo;s 2021 presidential runoff. The Anatomy of a Nobel Prize — under review, Empirical Economics. Other Working Papers Automation Is Not a Sufficient Statistic: Robots, AI, and Inequality. Two automation frontiers; pooling robot and AI exposure destroys 98% of the explained variance in skill-premium changes across 447 U.S. commuting zones. The Macroeconomic Consequences of Political Instability. Coups classified by institutional transition; a 4.2% impact-year TFP contraction concentrated in coups that displace democracies (Bjørnskov–Rode panel, 1960–2022). Missing Mass and Minimum Wages. A bunching estimator on three Peruvian minimum-wage increases. Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks in an Administered-Rate Economy: Evidence from Peru. The Shining Path of Violence: Long-term Effects on Human Capital in Peru. Spatial Sorting and Conflict Migration. A complete, continuously updated list is on the Research page.\nPublications Chávez, C. (2024). \u0026ldquo;Minimum Wage and Ethnic Gaps: Who are the Winners?\u0026rdquo; Journal of Economics, Race, and Policy, 7(2), 93–121. Chávez, C. (2023). \u0026ldquo;The Effects of Mining Presence on Inequality, Labor Income, and Poverty: Evidence from Peru.\u0026rdquo; Mineral Economics, 36(4), 615–642. Chávez, C. (2023). \u0026ldquo;Domestic Violence, Labor Market, and Minimum Wage: Theory and Evidence.\u0026rdquo; Review of Economics, 74(3), 195–233. Chávez, C. (2020). \u0026ldquo;The Impact of the El Niño Phenomenon on Dry-Forest-Dependent Communities\u0026rsquo; Welfare in the Northern Coast of Peru.\u0026rdquo; Ecological Economics. Chávez, C. (2024). \u0026ldquo;Estimating the Effects of Financial Liberalisation on Governability and Social Stability.\u0026rdquo; Foreign Trade Review, 59(4), 588–614. Chávez, C. (2024). \u0026ldquo;Latin American Firm Cooperation Payoff Evidence.\u0026rdquo; The International Trade Journal. Chávez, C., Salinas, G., \u0026amp; Yuri, Z. (2022). \u0026ldquo;Closing Peru\u0026rsquo;s Ethnic Gaps Amidst Sustained Economic Growth.\u0026rdquo; IMF Working Paper 2022/180. Additional peer-reviewed articles and the full list at Google Scholar.\nHonors \u0026amp; Awards 2024Merit Scholarship, University of Chicago 2023GSAS Future Leader Fellowship, Tufts University 2017Best Undergraduate Thesis Award, UNMSM Conference Presentations 2026Jinan University, Guangzhou (with S. Feng, J.J. Heckman, Z. Yang) · Institute for Fiscal Studies, London · Encuentro de Economistas, UNMSM, Lima 2023IEA World Congress, Medellín, Colombia 2022LACEA-LAMES Annual Meeting, PUCP, Lima · Bolivian Conference on Development Economics, La Paz 2021–2022Annual Conference of Peruvian Economists, Lima Teaching Experience 2020–2022Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería — Instructor: Econometric Theory, Econometrics I 2015–2018Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos — Teaching Assistant: Microeconomics, Macroeconomics Technical Skills Programming: Stata (advanced) · R (advanced) · Python (proficient) · Matlab (proficient)\nSoftware: LaTeX · ArcGIS · MySQL\nMethods: Structural estimation · panel data econometrics · causal inference · instrumental variables · machine learning · NLP\nLanguages: Spanish (native) · English (fluent)\nProfessional Affiliations American Economic Association · Royal Economic Society · Econometric Society\nReferences James J. Heckman — Henry Schultz Distinguished Service Professor of Economics, Department of Economics and Harris School, University of Chicago. jjh@uchicago.edu.\nAmory Gethin — Economist, Development Research Group, World Bank. agethin@worldbank.org.\nVincent Pons — Byron Wien Professor of Business Administration, Harvard Business School. vpons@hbs.edu.\nAdditional references available upon request.\n","permalink":"https://cesarchavezp29.github.io/cv/","summary":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eDownload:\u003c/strong\u003e \u003ca href=\"../cv.pdf\"\u003eAcademic CV\u003c/a\u003e · \u003ca href=\"../resume.pdf\"\u003eResume (1-page)\u003c/a\u003e · \u003ca href=\"../resume-policy.pdf\"\u003eResume — policy (1-page)\u003c/a\u003e. LaTeX sources maintained on Overleaf.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eDevelopment economist working on human capital and political economy, combining structural estimation with high-frequency data. Research Professional with \u003cstrong\u003eJames J. Heckman\u003c/strong\u003e at the University of Chicago, and builder of \u003ca href=\"../projects/qhawarina/\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eQhawarina\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/a\u003e, a real-time open-data platform for Peru.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003chr\u003e\n\u003ch5 id=\"education\"\u003eEducation\u003c/h5\u003e\n\u003cdl\u003e\n  \u003cdt\u003e2024–2025\u003c/dt\u003e\u003cdd\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eUniversity of Chicago, Harris School of Public Policy\u003c/strong\u003e — Master of Arts in Public Policy. \u003cem\u003eMerit Scholarship.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/dd\u003e\n  \u003cdt\u003e2013–2017\u003c/dt\u003e\u003cdd\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eUniversidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos (UNMSM)\u003c/strong\u003e — B.A. in Economics, graduated with honors (GPA 3.9/4.0). \u003cem\u003eBest Undergraduate Thesis.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/dd\u003e\n  \u003cdt\u003e2018\u003c/dt\u003e\u003cdd\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eUniversidad Nacional de Ingeniería\u003c/strong\u003e — Diplomas in Applied Econometrics and Finance.\u003c/dd\u003e\n\u003c/dl\u003e\n\u003chr\u003e\n\u003ch5 id=\"research-interests\"\u003eResearch Interests\u003c/h5\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003ePrimary:\u003c/strong\u003e Development Economics · Early Childhood Development\u003cbr\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003eSecondary:\u003c/strong\u003e Political Economy · Labor Economics\u003c/p\u003e","title":"CV"},{"content":" Download Paper (PDF) Abstract I study the distributional effects of three minimum wage increases in Peru, from S/750 to S/1,025 between 2016 and 2022, using a pre-post distributional estimator adapted from Cengiz et al. (2019) for a national minimum-wage setting without control jurisdictions. Bunching ratios range from 0.70 to 0.83: for every 100 jobs displaced below the new minimum, 70 to 83 reappear above it, and placebo tests at artificial thresholds produce ratios seven times smaller, confirming the signal is minimum-wage-specific. Extending the excess window to S/500 raises the ratio to 0.94, indicating that workers disperse broadly above the new floor. The self-employment share in the affected wage range rises 15 to 21 percentage points after each event.\nKeywords Minimum Wage, Bunching Estimator, Distributional Effects, Informality, Self-Employment, Peru\nCitation Chávez Padilla, Carlos César. 2026. \u0026ldquo;Missing Mass and Minimum Wages: Distributional Effects of Three Minimum Wage Increases in Peru.\u0026rdquo; Working paper.\n","permalink":"https://cesarchavezp29.github.io/papers/missing-mass-minimum-wages/","summary":"A pre-post distributional (bunching) estimator on three Peruvian minimum-wage increases (S/750 to S/1,025, 2016–2022). Bunching ratios of 0.70–0.83, placebo ratios seven times smaller, and a 15–21 pp rise in self-employment in the affected range.","title":"Missing Mass and Minimum Wages: Distributional Effects of Three Minimum Wage Increases in Peru"},{"content":" Access Methodology document (PDF) Code and daily data on GitHub Project overview and the Qhawarina project page What this is The open data behind Qhawarina, a real-time economic-monitoring platform for Peru. Four indicators are produced and published daily under an open license:\nDaily price index — a Billion-Prices-style supermarket inflation index built from 42,000+ products scraped daily, chain-linked with the Jevons formula. Political-risk index — a daily, news-based measure of the intensity of political instability in Peru, classified from 81 Peruvian news sources with an EPU-style severity weighting. This is the political-instability measure for Peru. GDP nowcast — a dynamic factor model over 35+ monthly indicators, with regional disaggregation. Monetary-poverty projection — a monthly department-level estimate combining survey data and nighttime lights. The qhawarina-methodology.pdf documents the formulas, data sources, assumptions, validation, and known limitations for each indicator.\nSources and license Built from public sources (BCRP, INEI, MIDAGRI, supermarket VTEX APIs, Peruvian news RSS feeds, VIIRS nighttime lights). Released under CC BY 4.0. All code is open at github.com/cesarchavezp29/qhawarina.\nCitation Chávez Padilla, Carlos César. 2026. \u0026ldquo;Qhawarina — Nowcasting Económico para el Perú (Documento Metodológico), v1.0.\u0026rdquo;\n","permalink":"https://cesarchavezp29.github.io/data/qhawarina-peru-open-data/","summary":"The open datasets behind the Qhawarina nowcasting platform — a daily supermarket price index, a daily news-based political-risk (instability) index for Peru, a GDP nowcast, and a poverty projection — with a full methodology document. Updated daily, CC BY 4.0.","title":"Qhawarina — Peru Open Economic Data"},{"content":"Overview Qhawarina is a real-time economic monitoring platform for Peru that provides nowcasts of key macroeconomic variables using dynamic factor models (DFM) and high-frequency data. The platform combines traditional monthly indicators with daily scraped data from supermarkets and news sources to provide up-to-date economic intelligence.\n42K+Products / daydaily supermarket price index +2.8%GDP nowcastyear-on-year \u0026middot; beats AR(1) by 31% 2.4%Inflation nowcastmonthly \u0026middot; bridge R\u0026sup2; 0.81 24.5KArticles classifiedpolitical-risk index \u0026middot; 506 days 25Departmentsmonthly poverty nowcast Built in 2026 and still updating daily \u0026mdash; the prices, inflation, GDP, and poverty pipelines refresh every day on GitHub. Only the political-risk index is paused, since it needs a news classifier to run. The code and methodology are fully open.\nLive demo — daily supermarket price index Real prices scraped every day across 42,000+ products. Base 100 = February 10, 2026; hover for any day.\nKey Features GDP Nowcasting Dynamic factor model with 35+ monthly indicators Regional disaggregation for 25 departments Rolling 7-year window to handle structural breaks Ridge regression bridge equations (α=1.0) Inflation Monitoring Daily price index based on Billion Prices Project methodology 42,000+ products from Plaza Vea, Metro, and Wong supermarkets Jevons bilateral chain-linked index 25 monthly series in DFM (BCRP, MIDAGRI, supermarket data) Poverty Nowcasting GradientBoosting regressor for 24 departments Monthly frequency estimates NTL (nighttime lights) data integration District-level spatial disaggregation Political Risk Index Daily RSS feed classification using Claude API with keyword fallback EPU-style severity-weighted methodology Separate political and economic instability indices Real-time news monitoring from 81 Peruvian sources Technical Stack Backend: Python (statsmodels, scikit-learn, pandas, anthropic) Scraping: VTEX API, RSS feeds, BCRP API, MIDAGRI bulletins Frontend: Next.js 14, TypeScript, Tailwind CSS, Recharts Deployment: GitHub Pages (data), Vercel (website) Automation: Windows Task Scheduler (daily updates)\nData Sources BCRP: 58 national series + 233 departmental series INEI: GDP (quarterly), CPI (monthly), Poverty (annual) Supermarkets: Daily prices via VTEX API MIDAGRI: Wholesale food prices, poultry prices News: 81 RSS feeds (El Comercio, La República, Gestión, etc.) Satellite: VIIRS nighttime lights (monthly, 2012-2024) Methodology DFM Specification: Based on Giannone et al. (2008), Stock \u0026amp; Watson (2002)\nEM algorithm for factor extraction with PCA fallback Handles ragged edge via truncation (50% threshold) COVID-exclusion filter (2020-2021) for post-pandemic stability Price Index: Cavallo \u0026amp; Rigobon (2016) Billion Prices Project\nGeometric mean of price ratios (Jevons formula) Chain-linking with daily base updates Extreme ratio filter: 0.5 \u0026lt; ratio \u0026lt; 2.0 Poverty Model: Change-prediction approach\nPredict Δpoverty_t = poverty_t - poverty_{t-1} GBR with dept-specific features from panel Beats AR(1) benchmark (Rel.RMSE=0.953) Performance GDP Nowcast: RMSE=1.41pp (pre-COVID), Rel.RMSE=0.69 vs AR(1) Inflation Nowcast: RMSE=0.319% vs AR(1)=0.322% (3-month MA target) Poverty Nowcast: RMSE=2.54pp vs AR(1)=2.65pp Daily Price Index: 12 days of data, -0.57% cumulative since Feb 10 Political Index: 417 days, 24,541 articles classified\nLinks Live Platform: qhawarina.vercel.app (placeholder - update with actual URL) GitHub: cesarchavezp29/qhawarina Data Exports: JSON files updated daily Future Work Incorporate commodity prices (copper, gold, zinc) Add employment nowcast using job postings data Implement MIDAS regression for mixed-frequency models Expand to other Latin American countries Add forecast evaluation dashboard References Cavallo \u0026amp; Rigobon (2016). \u0026ldquo;The Billion Prices Project\u0026rdquo;, MIT Giannone, Reichlin \u0026amp; Small (2008). \u0026ldquo;Nowcasting\u0026rdquo;, ECB Working Paper Stock \u0026amp; Watson (2002). \u0026ldquo;Forecasting Using Principal Components\u0026rdquo;, JASA ","permalink":"https://cesarchavezp29.github.io/projects/qhawarina/","summary":"Real-time monitoring system for Peru\u0026rsquo;s economic indicators including GDP, inflation, poverty, and political risk using state-of-the-art econometric methods and daily data scraping.","title":"Qhawarina: Real-Time Economic Monitoring for Peru"},{"content":"Abstract This paper develops a two-frontier task model in which robots and AI displace labor along distinct task continua — a physical sector and a cognitive sector. Within a nested CES production structure with two skill types and worker mobility across sectors, the partial effects of robot and AI shocks on the skill premium have opposite signs under pure displacement, and remain opposite under symmetric reinstatement regimes. Aggregate automation is therefore not a sufficient statistic for inequality: any test that lumps robots and AI into a single index masks economically meaningful heterogeneity.\nSetup Two sectors, Physical ($P$) and Cognitive ($C$), and two skill types, High ($H$) and Low ($S$). Each sector uses a nested CES production function with capital, surviving labor, and reinstated labor modules. The within-sector labor aggregator nests skill types with elasticity $\\varepsilon_w \u0026gt; 1$.\nA robot shock is an increase in $I_R$, the physical frontier (holding $I_A$ fixed). An AI shock is an increase in $I_A$, the cognitive frontier (holding $I_R$ fixed). Each frontier marks the fraction of its task continuum that has been automated.\nKey Reduction Wage equalization across sectors and the skill comparative-advantage assumption imply a constant cross-sector skill ratio,\n$$\\frac{r_C}{r_P} = \\kappa^{\\varepsilon_w - 1},$$\nwhich depends only on the skill comparative-advantage parameter $\\kappa$ and the labor elasticity $\\varepsilon_w$ — not on automation levels, prices, or output. This collapses the two-dimensional labor-allocation problem $(\\lambda_S, \\lambda_H)$ to a single dimension, enabling a clean chain-rule decomposition of the skill-premium effects of each frontier.\nMain Result Proposition 1 (Opposite Skill Premium Effects). Under pure displacement ($\\delta_R = \\delta_A = 0$), inner elasticity $\\sigma \u0026gt; 1$, outer elasticity $\\rho \u0026gt; 1$, and Cobb-Douglas final aggregation,\n$$\\frac{\\partial \\mathcal{P}}{\\partial I_R} \u0026gt; 0 \\qquad \\text{and} \\qquad \\frac{\\partial \\mathcal{P}}{\\partial I_A} \u0026lt; 0.$$\nA robot shock reduces surviving physical-labor productivity $\\mathcal{A}{SP}$, pushing workers out of the physical sector — the resulting reallocation raises the skill premium. An AI shock reduces surviving cognitive-labor productivity $\\mathcal{A}{SC}$, pushing workers into the physical sector — the resulting reallocation lowers the skill premium. The opposite-sign result is robust to the nested CES structure (the outer elasticity $\\rho$ scales the magnitude but not the sign) and to symmetric reinstatement regimes.\nCalibration The calibrated configuration is strongly asymmetric across frontiers:\n$\\hat{\\delta}_R \\approx 1.13$ — robots reinstate substantial new physical tasks per task displaced (strong reinstatement) $\\hat{\\delta}_A \\approx 0$ — AI displaces cognitive tasks with negligible reinstatement This asymmetry is illustrated below: in Panel A the physical-task identity extends past $1$ (robots create new tasks beyond the surviving range), while in Panel B the cognitive labor band is simply compressed with no offsetting task creation. Drag the sliders to see how each frontier reshapes its task continuum.\nInteractive Two-Frontier identity. Drag the sliders to see how each frontier shapes its task continuum. Panel A · Physical Tasks (robots) Physical task continuum showing robot displacement, surviving human labor, and reinstated tasks. Robot Human (surviving) Reinstated 0 I_R 1 1 + δ_R · I_R Panel B · Cognitive Tasks (AI) Cognitive task continuum showing AI displacement, surviving human labor, and (typically negligible) reinstatement. AI Human (surviving) Reinstated 0 I_A 1 IR \u0026nbsp;= 0.20 δR = 1.13 IA \u0026nbsp;= 0.10 δA = 0.00 Skill premium · Proposition 1: ∂𝒫 / ∂IR \u0026gt; 0 · ∂𝒫 / ∂IA \u0026lt; 0 Implication Aggregate automation indices conflate two technologically distinct frontiers. Empirical work and policy that treat automation as a single phenomenon will systematically miss the opposite skill-premium responses to robots and AI. The model rationalizes apparent \u0026ldquo;no effect\u0026rdquo; findings on composite automation indices: each frontier moves the skill premium, but in opposite directions — the canceled sum looks like nothing happened.\n","permalink":"https://cesarchavezp29.github.io/papers/automation/","summary":"Develops a novel task-based framework showing why aggregate automation hides opposite skill-premium effects of robots and AI.","title":"Automation Is Not a Sufficient Statistic: A Two-Frontier Task Model of Robots, AI, and Inequality"},{"content":" Download Paper (SSRN) Abstract This paper examines when tariff threats and economic coercion effectively change policy in target countries. Analyzes conditions under which economic leverage works and when it fails, with implications for trade wars and geopolitical competition.\nKeywords International Trade, Tariffs, Political Economy, Coercion, Trade Wars\nStats Views: 42 | Downloads: 16\n","permalink":"https://cesarchavezp29.github.io/papers/tariff-coercion/","summary":"42 views, 16 downloads. Examines conditions under which tariff threats effectively coerce policy changes in target countries.","title":"The Limits of Tariff Coercion: When Does Economic Leverage Work?"},{"content":" Status Under review, Political Analysis.\nDownload Paper (PDF) Abstract Standard election forensics methods — distributional fingerprint analysis, digit tests, ecological regression — apply cross-sectional diagnostics that cannot distinguish genuine geographic polarization from ballot manipulation when both produce similar distributional signatures. This paper introduces a within-election identification strategy that exploits institutional challenge records: when losing candidates file formal nullification challenges against specific polling stations, they inadvertently define a treatment group whose forensic properties can be compared to the unchallenged remainder of the same election. The design uses the fraud allegations themselves to construct the counterfactual, turning the challenger\u0026rsquo;s own legal record into an identification instrument, and applies it to the 2021 Peruvian presidential runoff.\nKeywords Election Forensics, Electoral Fraud, Identification, Nullification Challenges, Peru, 2021 Runoff\nCitation Chávez Padilla, Carlos César. 2026. \u0026ldquo;Fraud Allegations as Identification: A Within-Election Forensic Test Using Institutional Challenge Records.\u0026rdquo; Under review, Political Analysis.\n","permalink":"https://cesarchavezp29.github.io/papers/election-forensics-peru-2021/","summary":"Standard election forensics cannot separate genuine polarization from manipulation. This paper uses the polling stations a losing candidate formally challenged as a treatment group, comparing their forensic properties to the unchallenged remainder of the same election — turning the fraud allegations themselves into the counterfactual.","title":"Fraud Allegations as Identification: A Within-Election Forensic Test Using Institutional Challenge Records"},{"content":" Download Paper (PDF) Abstract Modern identification strategies for monetary policy — sign restrictions, Proxy-SVARs, narrative approaches — rest on assumptions that fail when the interbank rate is administered, no rate-futures market exists, and the monetary record contains too few sharp episodes. These three features, present in Peru and a broad class of emerging-market central banks, render non-recursive identification infeasible. I document this systematically using 85 quarterly observations (2004Q2–2025Q3), comparing seven identification strategies in a single unified framework. Only Cholesky recursive identification survives, and the peak GDP response to a 100 bp hike is −0.195 percentage points. A novel LLM-classified BCRP tone instrument passes relevance but fails exogeneity, a cautionary result for communication-based identification.\nKeywords Monetary Policy, Identification, SVAR, Administered Rates, Emerging Markets, Central Banking, Peru\nCitation Chávez Padilla, Carlos César. 2026. \u0026ldquo;Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks in an Administered-Rate Economy: Evidence from Peru.\u0026rdquo; Working paper.\n","permalink":"https://cesarchavezp29.github.io/papers/monetary-policy-shocks-peru/","summary":"Across 85 quarters (2004–2025) and seven identification strategies, only Cholesky recursive identification survives in an administered-rate economy; the peak GDP response to a 100 bp hike is −0.195 pp. An LLM-classified central-bank tone instrument passes relevance but fails exogeneity.","title":"Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks in an Administered-Rate Economy: Evidence from Peru"},{"content":" Download Paper (SSRN) Abstract This paper investigates the long-term effects of trade liberalization on innovation in developing economies during the Great Liberalization period. The results demonstrate that trade liberalization significantly increases innovation outcomes, with effects persisting for up to 30 years after liberalization.\nKeywords International Trade, Innovation, Trade Liberalization, Development Economics, Competition\n","permalink":"https://cesarchavezp29.github.io/papers/trade-liberalization/","summary":"Trade liberalization significantly increases innovation outcomes in developing countries, with effects persisting for up to 30 years.","title":"Innovation, Liberalization, and Competition"},{"content":" Abstract Draft available upon request.\n","permalink":"https://cesarchavezp29.github.io/papers/robots-reinstate-ai-doesnt/","summary":"Robots reinstate displaced workers through new tasks, while AI mostly displaces without creating offsetting task demand — generating sharper inequality.","title":"Robots Reinstate, AI Doesn't: Asymmetric Task Creation Across Automation Frontiers"},{"content":" Download Paper (PDF) Abstract Does coming of age under democracy durably shape political attitudes? We test the formative-window hypothesis using birth-cohort variation in democratic exposure across first-transition countries in the World Values Survey and Latinobarómetro, identifying effects from cross-country differences in transition timing. On regime support we find no evidence that formative exposure raises support, an informative null whose equivalence bounds rule out effects of substantively meaningful size within this design. On emancipative values, the Inglehart-Welzel tradition\u0026rsquo;s signature formative outcome, an apparent cohort gradient is not identified as formative: it appears among never-exposed cohorts, shows no discontinuity at transition, and persists where exposure is fixed at its maximum and formation cannot operate. It is observationally equivalent to a secular cohort trend correlated with transition timing. A country-specific cohort-trend control absorbs most of the gradient while leaving the regime null intact.\nKeywords Democratization, Formative Window, Political Attitudes, Emancipative Values, Regime Support, Cohort Analysis\nCitation Chávez Padilla, Carlos César. 2026. \u0026ldquo;Shifts in Regime, Shifts in Mind: Estimating the Attitudinal Effects of Democratization.\u0026rdquo; Working paper.\n","permalink":"https://cesarchavezp29.github.io/papers/shifts-in-regime/","summary":"Using birth-cohort variation in democratic exposure across first-transition countries, the paper finds no formative effect on regime support, and shows that the apparent formative effect on emancipative values is observationally equivalent to a secular cohort trend.","title":"Shifts in Regime, Shifts in Mind: Estimating the Attitudinal Effects of Democratization"},{"content":" Abstract Draft available upon request.\n","permalink":"https://cesarchavezp29.github.io/papers/macroeconomics-asymmetric-automation/","summary":"Develops a macroeconomic framework for asymmetric automation across tasks, robots, and AI, and traces the aggregate implications for labor markets and growth.","title":"The Macroeconomics of Asymmetric Automation"},{"content":" Download Paper (PDF) Abstract Between 2016 and 2023 Peru cycled through seven presidents, a presidential self-coup, and deadly mass protests, yet its sovereign spread fell to historic lows. We document this over 2000–2025 and trace it to the credibility of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru under Governor Julio Velarde, appointed in 2006. Before 2006 the average political event moved Peru\u0026rsquo;s sovereign spread by 41 basis points; afterward the response is indistinguishable from zero. The instability–spread correlation flips from +0.55 to −0.23, daily spread volatility falls more than threefold, and the market response decays with the governor\u0026rsquo;s tenure. We rationalize these facts with a model combining monetary-policy delegation, sovereign-spread pricing, and Bayesian learning about the governor\u0026rsquo;s type, which yields an insulation theorem, a variance-reduction ratio, and a tenure-decay coefficient, each matched to an estimate. An endogenous structural-break test rejects a sharp 2006 transition in favor of gradual accumulation through the Velarde era, and the decoupling survives global controls.\nKeywords Central Bank Credibility, Sovereign Spreads, Monetary-Policy Delegation, Political Instability, Bayesian Learning, Peru\nCitation Chávez Padilla, Carlos César. 2026. \u0026ldquo;When Bad Institutions Meet Good Ones: The Peruvian Puzzle.\u0026rdquo; Working paper.\n","permalink":"https://cesarchavezp29.github.io/papers/peruvian-puzzle/","summary":"Between 2016 and 2023 Peru cycled through seven presidents, a self-coup, and deadly protests, yet its sovereign spread fell to historic lows. The decoupling is traced to the credibility of the Central Reserve Bank under Governor Velarde, and rationalized with a delegation-and-learning model.","title":"When Bad Institutions Meet Good Ones: The Peruvian Puzzle"},{"content":" Download Paper (available upon request) Abstract This paper resolves the resource curse puzzle by showing that opportunity costs reduce state-based conflict while rapacity increases non-state conflict. Using Peru\u0026rsquo;s mining boom, I find that boom-period growth reduced insurgencies by 2.65 percentage points but intensified territorial competition by 0.49 percentage points.\nKeywords Natural Resources, Conflict, Peru, Resource Curse, Mining\n","permalink":"https://cesarchavezp29.github.io/papers/commodity-booms/","summary":"Opportunity costs reduce state-based conflict while rapacity increases non-state conflict. Boom-period growth reduced insurgencies by 2.65pp but intensified territorial competition by 0.49pp.","title":"Commodity Booms and Violent Conflict"},{"content":" Download Paper (available upon request) Abstract This paper challenges the conventional wisdom that export-led growth is the primary mechanism through which trade reduces poverty in developing countries. Using panel data from 18 Latin American countries, I show that import liberalization has larger poverty-reducing effects than export expansion through the consumption channel.\nKeywords International Trade, Development Economics, Poverty, Latin America\n","permalink":"https://cesarchavezp29.github.io/papers/trade/","summary":"Import liberalization has larger poverty-reducing effects than export expansion through lower consumer prices.","title":"Import Liberalization, Not Export Expansion"},{"content":" Download Paper (available upon request) Abstract This paper examines the long-term economic consequences of Peru\u0026rsquo;s internal conflict (1980-2000) on regional development. Using administrative data and a difference-in-differences framework with synthetic controls, I document persistent negative effects of terrorism exposure on regional GDP, poverty rates, and human capital accumulation.\nKeywords Development Economics, Conflict Economics, Latin America, Peru\n","permalink":"https://cesarchavezp29.github.io/papers/terrorism/","summary":"Studies how exposure to terrorism during Peru\u0026rsquo;s internal war (1980-2000) affected long-term regional economic development.","title":"Terrorism and Regional Development: Evidence from Peru's Internal War"},{"content":" Download Paper (available upon request) Abstract I analyze all Nobel Prizes in Economic Sciences awarded between 1969 and 2025 to document patterns in geographic concentration, institutional affiliations, methodological approaches, and research fields. The analysis reveals increasing recognition of empirical and experimental methods over purely theoretical work.\nKeywords Economics Profession, Research Impact, Scientometrics\n","permalink":"https://cesarchavezp29.github.io/papers/nobel/","summary":"Analyzes geographic concentration, methodological trends, and citation patterns in Nobel Prize awards.","title":"The Anatomy of a Nobel Prize (1969–2025)"},{"content":" Download Paper (Springer) Abstract This paper examines the relationship between technological innovation and genuine civilizational advancement, questioning whether technological progress always translates to human flourishing. Published in AI and Ethics (2025), volume 5, pages 5309–5326.\nCitation Chávez Padilla, C. C. (2025). \u0026ldquo;A theory of (illusional) progress: balancing technological innovation and civilizational advancement.\u0026rdquo; AI and Ethics, 5, 5309–5326.\nKeywords AI Ethics, Technology, Philosophy, Civilization, Progress\n","permalink":"https://cesarchavezp29.github.io/papers/ai-progress/","summary":"Published in AI and Ethics - examines the relationship between technological progress and genuine civilizational advancement.","title":"A Theory of (Illusional) Progress"},{"content":" Status Revise and resubmit, Journal of Labor Economics.\nAuthors Carlos César Chávez Padilla (first author), S. Feng, James J. Heckman, and Z. Yang.\nAbstract We study how cognitive skills and personality traits relate to economic preferences in a sample of Chinese children. Using a structural model with CRRA and Expo-Power utility specifications and sophisticated error structures, we separate preferences from deliberation quality. Cognitive ability primarily affects decision precision rather than underlying risk preferences, with implications for the interpretation of preference estimates from incentivized lottery tasks.\n","permalink":"https://cesarchavezp29.github.io/papers/cognitive-skills-preferences/","summary":"First author with S. Feng, J.J. Heckman, and Z. Yang. Structural modeling with sophisticated error structures separates preferences from deliberation quality; cognitive ability affects decision precision more than underlying risk preferences.","title":"Relating Cognitive Skills and Personality Traits to Economic Preferences: A Study of Chinese Children"},{"content":" Download Paper (SSRN) Abstract This paper develops a game-theoretic model of political lying under electoral pressure. Analyzes when politicians choose to lie, how voters respond, and the conditions under which lying is an equilibrium strategy in electoral competition.\nKeywords Political Economy, Game Theory, Elections, Misinformation, Political Lying\nStats Views: 154 | Downloads: 31\n","permalink":"https://cesarchavezp29.github.io/papers/electoral-lying/","summary":"154 views, 31 downloads. Develops a game-theoretic model of when politicians lie under electoral pressure.","title":"Electoral Pressure and Political Lying: A Theory of Political Lying"},{"content":" Download Paper (SSRN) Abstract This paper develops a mathematical model of strategic lying in political contexts. It addresses strategic deception, political economy, misinformation, and political manipulation, providing a theoretical framework for understanding when and why political actors engage in deception.\nKeywords Political Economy, Game Theory, Misinformation, Political Manipulation, Strategic Deception\n","permalink":"https://cesarchavezp29.github.io/papers/lying/","summary":"Addresses strategic deception, political economy, misinformation, and political manipulation through a mathematical framework.","title":"A Simple Mathematical Model of Lying"},{"content":" Download Paper (SSRN) Abstract This paper estimates the effects of financial liberalization on governability and social stability, examining whether opening capital accounts improves or destabilizes political systems in developing countries.\nKeywords Financial Liberalization, Political Economy, Governability, Social Stability\nStats Views: 304 | Downloads: 46\n","permalink":"https://cesarchavezp29.github.io/papers/financial-liberalization/","summary":"304 views, 46 downloads. Examines how financial liberalization affects political and social stability.","title":"Estimating The Effects Of Financial Liberalization On Governability And Social Stability"},{"content":" Download Paper (PDF) Abstract Do all coups d\u0026rsquo;état carry the same economic cost? Using a first-event-only local projection on the Bjørnskov–Rode regime panel of 180 countries from 1960 to 2022, we estimate the response of total factor productivity to coups classified by the institutional transition each one produces. The impact-year productivity contraction is 4.2 percent in coups that displace a sitting democracy and statistically negligible in failed coups and coups that leave the regime unchanged, with the pairwise contrast rejecting equality at the 5 percent level. The estimate survives country jackknife, leave-one-region-out, alternative regime-classification timing, and a wild cluster bootstrap. An option-value adoption framework organizes the asymmetry, and a two-block structural estimation matches its qualitative predictions. The economic cost of political instability concentrates in the coups that dismantle democratic institutions, so the productivity stakes of instability lie in protecting democratic survival.\nKeywords Coups d\u0026rsquo;état, Institutional Change, Local Projections, Total Factor Productivity, Democracy, Political Instability\nCitation Chávez Padilla, Carlos César. 2024. \u0026ldquo;The Macroeconomic Consequences of Political Instability.\u0026rdquo; Working paper.\n","permalink":"https://cesarchavezp29.github.io/papers/political-instability/","summary":"A first-event local projection on the Bjørnskov–Rode panel of 180 countries (1960–2022) shows the impact-year TFP contraction is 4.2 percent for coups that displace a democracy and negligible otherwise. An option-value framework and a two-block structural estimation organize the asymmetry.","title":"The Macroeconomic Consequences of Political Instability"},{"content":" Mailing address Carlos César Chávez Padilla Center for Economics of Human Development University of Chicago 1126 E. 59th Street Chicago, IL 60637 United States\nOffice location ","permalink":"https://cesarchavezp29.github.io/location/","summary":"\u003chr\u003e\n\u003ch4 id=\"mailing-address\"\u003eMailing address\u003c/h4\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eCarlos César Chávez Padilla\nCenter for Economics of Human Development\nUniversity of Chicago\n1126 E. 59th Street\nChicago, IL 60637\nUnited States\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003chr\u003e\n\u003ch4 id=\"office-location\"\u003eOffice location\u003c/h4\u003e\n\u003ciframe src=\"https://www.google.com/maps/embed?pb=!1m18!1m12!1m3!1d2973.0449982893986!2d-87.59858132346524!3d41.78776817124097!2m3!1f0!2f0!3f0!3m2!1i1024!2i768!4f13.1!3m3!1m2!1s0x880e293f3ce71a67%3A0x5a3c2b0ed6fe6e1a!2sUniversity%20of%20Chicago!5e0!3m2!1sen!2sus!4v1708587132562!5m2!1sen!2sus\"\nwidth=\"700\" height=\"500\" style=\"border:0;\" allowfullscreen=\"\" loading=\"lazy\"\u003e\u003c/iframe\u003e","title":"Location"},{"content":" Download Paper (SSRN) Abstract This paper analyzes the returns to cooperation across Latin American firms, examining how inter-firm cooperation affects productivity, innovation, and market performance.\nKeywords Development Economics, Firms, Latin America, Cooperation, Productivity\nStats Views: 347 | Downloads: 45\n","permalink":"https://cesarchavezp29.github.io/papers/cooperation-payoff/","summary":"347 views, 45 downloads. Analyzes returns to cooperation across Latin American firms.","title":"Cooperation Pay-Off: An Analysis Across Latin America's Firms"},{"content":" Download Paper (available upon request) Abstract Published in the Journal of Economics, Race, and Policy (2024), this paper examines how minimum wage policy affects ethnic income gaps in Peru, analyzing labor market responses across ethnic groups.\nCitation Chávez Padilla, C. C. (2024). \u0026ldquo;Minimum Wage and Ethnic-Gaps.\u0026rdquo; Journal of Economics, Race, and Policy.\nRelated Paper \u0026ldquo;Domestic Violence, Labor Market, and Minimum Wage\u0026rdquo; - Review of Economics (2023) Keywords Minimum Wage, Ethnicity, Labor Economics, Peru, Inequality\n","permalink":"https://cesarchavezp29.github.io/papers/minimum-wage/","summary":"Examines how minimum wage policy affects ethnic income gaps in Peru.","title":"Minimum Wage and Ethnic Gaps"},{"content":" Download Paper (SSRN) Abstract This paper estimates the effects of mining activity on violence against women in Peru. Using spatial variation in mining presence and temporal variation in commodity prices, I examine how resource extraction affects domestic violence through labor market channels, income effects, and changes in social norms and gender relations.\nKeywords Domestic Violence, Mining, Peru, Gender, Development Economics, Natural Resources\n","permalink":"https://cesarchavezp29.github.io/papers/domestic-violence/","summary":"Estimates the effects of mining activity on violence against women in Peru, examining both direct and indirect channels through labor markets and social norms.","title":"Mining Presence and Domestic Violence"},{"content":" Citation Published in Revista de Economia Contemporânea (2023).\n","permalink":"https://cesarchavezp29.github.io/papers/undervaluation-growth-panelvar/","summary":"Uses panel VAR methods to examine how exchange rate undervaluation affects economic growth.","title":"A Panel VAR Analysis of the Dynamic Impact of Undervaluation on Economic Growth"},{"content":" Download Paper (SSRN) Abstract This paper uses panel VAR analysis to examine whether foreign direct investment improves or worsens aggregate productivity in developing countries. Identifies causal effects through temporal dynamics and cross-country variation.\nKeywords Foreign Direct Investment, Productivity, Panel VAR, International Economics\nStats Views: 344 | Downloads: 73\n","permalink":"https://cesarchavezp29.github.io/papers/fdi-productivity/","summary":"344 views, 73 downloads. Panel VAR examining causal effects of FDI on aggregate productivity.","title":"Does Foreign Investment Improve or Worsen Aggregate Productivity? A Panel VAR Analysis"},{"content":" Download Paper (SSRN) Abstract This paper develops theory and provides empirical evidence on how minimum wage changes affect domestic violence through labor market channels in Peru. Examines both income and bargaining power mechanisms.\nKeywords Labor Economics, Domestic Violence, Minimum Wage, Peru, Gender Economics\nStats Views: 811 | Downloads: 153\n","permalink":"https://cesarchavezp29.github.io/papers/domestic-violence-wage/","summary":"811 views, 153 downloads. High-impact paper on minimum wage effects on domestic violence in Peru.","title":"Domestic Violence, Labor Market, And Minimum Wage: Theory And Evidence from Peru"},{"content":" Download Paper (SSRN) Abstract This paper elaborates a new measure of a monetary policy shock, with profitability of firms measured as the ratio between Net Income and Total Assets and Net Profits. Using Local Projections methodology, I examine the heterogeneous effects of monetary policy across industries in Peru using publicly traded firm data.\nKeywords Monetary Policy, Peru, Firm-Level Analysis, Heterogeneity, Local Projections\n","permalink":"https://cesarchavezp29.github.io/papers/monetary-policy/","summary":"Elaborates a new measure of monetary policy shock and examines heterogeneous effects across industries using firm profitability and Local Projections methodology.","title":"Heterogeneous Effects of Monetary Policy on Industries"},{"content":" Download Paper (available upon request) Abstract This paper examines the effects of mining presence on inequality, labor income, and poverty outcomes in Peru. Published in Mineral Economics (2023), it provides evidence on the local economic impacts of mining activities in developing countries.\nCitation Chávez Padilla, C. C. (2023). \u0026ldquo;Mining presence on inequality, labor income, and poverty: Evidence from Peru.\u0026rdquo; Mineral Economics.\nKeywords Mining, Peru, Inequality, Poverty, Labor Markets\n","permalink":"https://cesarchavezp29.github.io/papers/mining-violence/","summary":"Published in Mineral Economics - examines effects of mining presence on inequality, labor income, and poverty in Peru.","title":"Mining Presence on Inequality, Labor Income, and Poverty"},{"content":" Download Paper (IMF) Abstract This IMF Working Paper examines ethnic income gaps in Peru during the country\u0026rsquo;s sustained economic growth period from 2000-2020. Co-authored with Gonzalo Salinas and Zahid Yuri, the paper analyzes labor market outcomes and inequality dynamics across ethnic groups.\nCitation Salinas, G., Chávez Padilla, C. C., \u0026amp; Yuri, Z. (2022). Closing Peru\u0026rsquo;s Ethnic Gaps Amidst Sustained Economic Growth. IMF Working Paper 2022/180.\nKeywords Peru, Ethnic Inequality, Labor Markets, Economic Growth, Development Economics\nGoogle Scholar Citations 79 citations\n","permalink":"https://cesarchavezp29.github.io/papers/ethnic-gaps/","summary":"Examines Peru\u0026rsquo;s ethnic income gaps during sustained economic growth period.","title":"Closing Peru's Ethnic Gaps Amidst Sustained Economic Growth"},{"content":" Citation Published in Journal of Developing Economies (2020).\n","permalink":"https://cesarchavezp29.github.io/papers/real-exchange-rate-determinants/","summary":"Combines behavioural and fundamental approaches to study real exchange rate dynamics in Latin American countries.","title":"Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate: A Behavioural and Fundamental Dynamic Analysis in Latin American Countries"},{"content":" Citation Published in Ecological Economics (2020).\n","permalink":"https://cesarchavezp29.github.io/papers/el-nino-dry-forests/","summary":"Estimates how the El Niño phenomenon affects the welfare of communities that depend on the dry forests of Peru\u0026rsquo;s northern coast.","title":"The impact of El Niño phenomenon on dry forest-dependent communities' welfare in the northern coast of Peru"},{"content":" Citation Published in Latin American Journal of Trade Policy (2020).\n","permalink":"https://cesarchavezp29.github.io/papers/real-exchange-rate-macro/","summary":"Examines how macroeconomic fundamentals shape the real exchange rate across Latin American economies.","title":"The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on the Real Exchange Rate in Latin America"},{"content":" Citation Published in Pensamiento Crítico (2018).\n","permalink":"https://cesarchavezp29.github.io/papers/domestic-violence-health-peru/","summary":"Estima los efectos de la violencia física contra la mujer sobre la salud familiar en el Perú durante el periodo 2012–2016.","title":"Estimación de los efectos de la violencia física hacia la mujer en la salud familiar en el Perú: 2012–2016"}]