Working papers are available on SSRN; final versions are available upon request.
Research
Publications
Trade liberalization significantly increases innovation outcomes in developing countries, with effects persisting for up to 30 years.
Published in AI and Ethics - examines the relationship between technological progress and genuine civilizational advancement.
304 views, 46 downloads. Examines how financial liberalization affects political and social stability.
Examines how minimum wage policy affects ethnic income gaps in Peru.
347 views, 45 downloads. Analyzes returns to cooperation across Latin American firms.
Published in Mineral Economics - examines effects of mining presence on inequality, labor income, and poverty in Peru.
Elaborates a new measure of monetary policy shock and examines heterogeneous effects across industries using firm profitability and Local Projections methodology.
811 views, 153 downloads. High-impact paper on minimum wage effects on domestic violence in Peru.
344 views, 73 downloads. Panel VAR examining causal effects of FDI on aggregate productivity.
Uses panel VAR methods to examine how exchange rate undervaluation affects economic growth.
Examines how macroeconomic fundamentals shape the real exchange rate across Latin American economies.
Estimates how the El Niño phenomenon affects the welfare of communities that depend on the dry forests of Peru’s northern coast.
Combines behavioural and fundamental approaches to study real exchange rate dynamics in Latin American countries.
Estima los efectos de la violencia física contra la mujer sobre la salud familiar en el Perú durante el periodo 2012–2016.
Under Review
Analyzes geographic concentration, methodological trends, and citation patterns in Nobel Prize awards.
Import liberalization has larger poverty-reducing effects than export expansion through lower consumer prices.
Opportunity costs reduce state-based conflict while rapacity increases non-state conflict. Boom-period growth reduced insurgencies by 2.65pp but intensified territorial competition by 0.49pp.
First author with S. Feng, J.J. Heckman, and Z. Yang. Structural modeling with sophisticated error structures separates preferences from deliberation quality; cognitive ability affects decision precision more than underlying risk preferences.
154 views, 31 downloads. Develops a game-theoretic model of when politicians lie under electoral pressure.
Working Papers
Conflict, Violence & Political Instability
Studies how exposure to terrorism during Peru’s internal war (1980-2000) affected long-term regional economic development.
Spatial sorting explains 100% of conflict migrants’ economic advantages. Dual selection: wealth determines who stays, education determines who succeeds among migrants.
Political instability significantly negatively affects economic growth, TFP, FDI, and trade while increasing government spending, inflation, unemployment, inequality, and poverty.
Explores the relationship between nighttime light intensity and violence patterns globally, with focus on intentional homicide rates and deaths in armed conflicts.
International Trade
42 views, 16 downloads. Examines conditions under which tariff threats effectively coerce policy changes in target countries.
170 views, 29 downloads. Shows how import liberalization reduced food prices and caloric poverty in Peru.
Labor, Gender & Inequality
Estimates the effects of mining activity on violence against women in Peru, examining both direct and indirect channels through labor markets and social norms.
Examines Peru’s ethnic income gaps during sustained economic growth period.
Political Economy of Information
Addresses strategic deception, political economy, misinformation, and political manipulation through a mathematical framework.
Innovation & the Economics Profession
Develops a novel task-based framework showing why aggregate automation hides opposite skill-premium effects of robots and AI.
Develops a macroeconomic framework for asymmetric automation across tasks, robots, and AI, and traces the aggregate implications for labor markets and growth.
Robots reinstate displaced workers through new tasks, while AI mostly displaces without creating offsetting task demand — generating sharper inequality.
141 views, 35 downloads. Analyzes when and how econometric techniques become mainstream in economics research.
151 views, 25 downloads. Theoretical model of how econometric techniques and ideas spread through the profession.