Status
Under review, Political Analysis.
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Abstract
Standard election forensics methods — distributional fingerprint analysis, digit tests, ecological regression — apply cross-sectional diagnostics that cannot distinguish genuine geographic polarization from ballot manipulation when both produce similar distributional signatures. This paper introduces a within-election identification strategy that exploits institutional challenge records: when losing candidates file formal nullification challenges against specific polling stations, they inadvertently define a treatment group whose forensic properties can be compared to the unchallenged remainder of the same election. The design uses the fraud allegations themselves to construct the counterfactual, turning the challenger’s own legal record into an identification instrument, and applies it to the 2021 Peruvian presidential runoff.
Keywords
Election Forensics, Electoral Fraud, Identification, Nullification Challenges, Peru, 2021 Runoff
Citation
Chávez Padilla, Carlos César. 2026. “Fraud Allegations as Identification: A Within-Election Forensic Test Using Institutional Challenge Records.” Under review, Political Analysis.