Do Voters Punish Political Instability? — Replication Data

Estimation universe, primary and first-round outcomes, the 36-specification robustness curve, the first-round block decomposition and offensive-intensity panel, the two mechanism tests, the Lava Jato corridor exposure, and the spatial-HAC inference table — all district-level and built from public sources.

June 2026 · Carlos César Chávez Padilla

Do Voters Punish Political Instability? Attribution, Electoral Subversion, and Material Disruption in Peru

A district-level electoral panel for Peru tests whether voters punish an attributable electoral-subversion offensive and an authorless material shock. Both yield no differential punishment, and two-round coordination helps explain why subversion can go locally unpunished.

June 2026 · Carlos César Chávez Padilla