The Macroeconomics of Automation: Sorting Frictions and the Asymmetry Between Robots and AI

Estimates reinstatement and sorting-disruption rates for the robot and AI frontiers from commuting-zone moments under design-based inference. Robots deliver more productivity per unit of advance in every sorting-parameter draw; AI raises the skill premium and does twice the labor-share damage; a planner subsidizes robot research at 1.4 to 2.1 times the AI rate.

July 2026 · Carlos César Chávez Padilla

Automation Is Not a Sufficient Statistic: A Two-Frontier Task Model of Robots, AI, and Inequality

Develops a novel task-based framework showing why aggregate automation hides opposite skill-premium effects of robots and AI.

February 2026 · Carlos César Chávez Padilla