Monetary Policy

Across 85 quarters (2004–2025) and seven identification strategies, only Cholesky recursive identification survives in an administered-rate economy; the peak GDP response to a 100 bp hike is −0.195 pp. An LLM-classified central-bank tone instrument passes relevance but fails exogeneity.

Between 2016 and 2023 Peru cycled through seven presidents, a self-coup, and deadly protests, yet its sovereign spread fell to historic lows. The decoupling is traced to the credibility of the Central Reserve Bank under Governor Velarde, and rationalized with a delegation-and-learning model.

Elaborates a new measure of monetary policy shock and examines heterogeneous effects across industries using firm profitability and Local Projections methodology.