Reconstructs the cartelized road tenders from an antitrust resolution, measures the procurement price of corruption and where it lands on nearby households, and grades collusion-detection screens against a tender-by-tender adjudication.
Studies how exposure to terrorism during Peru’s internal war (1980-2000) affected long-term regional demographic, human capital, and economic trajectories.
Estimation universe, primary and first-round outcomes, the 36-specification robustness curve, the first-round block decomposition and offensive-intensity panel, the two mechanism tests, the Lava Jato corridor exposure, and the spatial-HAC inference table — all district-level and built from public sources.
A district-level electoral panel for Peru tests whether voters punish an attributable electoral-subversion offensive and an authorless material shock. Both yield no differential punishment, and two-round coordination helps explain why subversion can go locally unpunished.
78 cartelized road tenders, 32 sanctioned firms, firm roles, winners, offer-level bids with the adjudicated colluded/competitive label, fines and illicit benefit, and exposure measures.
A pre-post distributional (bunching) estimator on three Peruvian minimum-wage increases (S/750 to S/1,025, 2016–2022). Bunching ratios of 0.70–0.83, placebo ratios seven times smaller, and a 15–21 pp rise in self-employment in the affected range.
The open datasets behind the Qhawarina nowcasting platform — a daily supermarket price index, a daily news-based political-risk (instability) index for Peru, a GDP nowcast, and a poverty projection — with a full methodology document. Updated daily, CC BY 4.0.
Real-time monitoring system for Peru’s economic indicators including GDP, inflation, poverty, and political risk using state-of-the-art econometric methods and daily data scraping.
Daily price index
GDP growth (quarterly)Standard election forensics cannot separate genuine polarization from manipulation. This paper uses the polling stations a losing candidate formally challenged as a treatment group, comparing their forensic properties to the unchallenged remainder of the same election — turning the fraud allegations themselves into the counterfactual.
Across 85 quarters (2004–2025) and seven identification strategies, only Cholesky recursive identification survives in an administered-rate economy; the peak GDP response to a 100 bp hike is −0.195 pp. An LLM-classified central-bank tone instrument passes relevance but fails exogeneity.
Between 2016 and 2023 Peru cycled through seven presidents, a self-coup, and deadly protests, yet its sovereign spread fell to historic lows. The decoupling is traced to the credibility of the Central Reserve Bank under Governor Velarde, and rationalized with a delegation-and-learning model.
Opportunity costs reduce state-based conflict while rapacity increases non-state conflict. Boom-period growth reduced insurgencies by 2.65pp but intensified territorial competition by 0.49pp.
Examines how minimum wage policy affects ethnic income gaps in Peru.
Estimates the effects of mining activity on violence against women in Peru, examining both direct and indirect channels through labor markets and social norms.
811 views, 153 downloads. High-impact paper on minimum wage effects on domestic violence in Peru.
Elaborates a new measure of monetary policy shock and examines heterogeneous effects across industries using firm profitability and Local Projections methodology.
Published in Mineral Economics - examines effects of mining presence on inequality, labor income, and poverty in Peru.
Examines Peru’s ethnic income gaps during sustained economic growth period.