A district-level electoral panel for Peru tests whether voters punish an attributable electoral-subversion offensive and an authorless material shock. Both yield no differential punishment, and two-round coordination helps explain why subversion can go locally unpunished.
42 views, 16 downloads. Examines conditions under which tariff threats effectively coerce policy changes in target countries.
Standard election forensics cannot separate genuine polarization from manipulation. This paper uses the polling stations a losing candidate formally challenged as a treatment group, comparing their forensic properties to the unchallenged remainder of the same election — turning the fraud allegations themselves into the counterfactual.
154 views, 31 downloads. Develops a game-theoretic model of when politicians lie under electoral pressure.
Addresses strategic deception, political economy, misinformation, and political manipulation through a mathematical framework.
304 views, 46 downloads. Examines how financial liberalization affects political and social stability.
A first-event local projection on the Bjørnskov–Rode panel of 180 countries (1960–2022) shows the impact-year TFP contraction is 4.2 percent for coups that displace a democracy and negligible otherwise. An option-value framework and a two-block structural estimation organize the asymmetry.